Flood risk influenced by the compound effect of storm surge and rainfall under climate change for low-lying coastal areas

Shih Chun Hsiao, Wen Son Chiang, Jiun Huei Jang, Han Lun Wu, Wei Shiun Lu, Wei Bo Chen, Yun Ta Wu

研究成果: Article同行評審

58 引文 斯高帕斯(Scopus)

摘要

Under climate change, compound flooding has resulted in severe disasters in coastal areas around the world. In this study, an integrated framework is proposed to determine the range of compound flood risk without the requirement of joint probability analysis between storm surge and rainfall. In the framework, the flood risks are analyzed under four extreme scenarios with/without the compound effect of storm surge and rainfall in the past and the future. From the end of the 20th century to the middle of the 21st century, the worst scenario shows that the flood area significantly increases by 92% for the low-lying coastal areas in southwest Taiwan under the compound effect of storm surge and rainfall if they are fully correlated. In the most optimistic scenario, the flood area slightly increases by 15% without compound effect (only storm surge is considered). To coastal flooding, the synchronization of storm surge and rainfall contributes much more than the climate-induced amplification of individual factors. When storm surge and rainfall happen at the same time, the extent and duration of flooding increase simultaneously under the influence of pluvial and surge-induced flooding. Risk analysis shows an obvious increase of risk level for villages originally at low risks, which require integrated countermeasures against the consequence brought by compound flooding in the future. The framework can be applied in other low-lying coastal areas to quantify the potential impacts on human and environment caused by compound flooding under climate change.

原文English
文章編號144439
期刊Science of the Total Environment
764
DOIs
出版狀態Published - 2021 4月 10

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • 環境工程
  • 環境化學
  • 廢物管理和處置
  • 污染

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