Geriatric influenza death (GID) score: A new tool for predicting mortality in older people with influenza in the emergency department

Jui Yuan Chung, Chien Chin Hsu, Jiann Hwa Chen, Wei Lung Chen, Hung Jung Lin, How Ran Guo, Chien Cheng Huang

研究成果: Article同行評審

10 引文 斯高帕斯(Scopus)

摘要

Although influenza may cause death in the geriatric population, the best method for predicting mortality in this population is still unclear. We retrospectively recruited older people (≥65 yr) with influenza visiting the emergency department (ED) of a medical center between January 1, 2010, and December 31, 2015. We performed univariate and multivariate logistic regression to identify independent mortality predictors and then developed a prediction score. Four hundred nine older ED patients with a nearly equal sex ratio were recruited. Five independent mortality predictors were identified: severe coma (Glasgow Coma Scale score ≤8), past histories of cancer and coronary artery disease, elevated C-reactive protein levels (>10 mg/dl), and bandemia (>10% band cells). We divided the patients into three mortality risk and disposition groups: (1) low risk (1.1%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.5-3.0%); (2) moderate risk (16.7%; 95% CI, 9.3-28.0%); and (3) high risk (40%; 95% CI, 19.8-64.2%). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit of the GID score were 0.86 and 0.578, respectively. The GID score is an efficient and simple tool for predicting mortality in older ED patients with influenza. Further studies are warranted to validate its use.

原文English
文章編號9312
期刊Scientific reports
8
發行號1
DOIs
出版狀態Published - 2018 十二月 1

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • General

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