Impacts du changement climatique sur l'alimentation d'un réservoir et la production d'énergie hydro-électrique de centrales hydroélectriques en cascade

Pao Shan Yu, Tao Chang Yang, Chen Min Kuo, Jung Chen Chou, Hung Wei Tseng

研究成果: Article同行評審

10 引文 斯高帕斯(Scopus)

摘要

This study describes a procedure for investigating climate change impacts on reservoir inflows and subsequent hydroelectric power generation (HPG) for cascaded hydropower plants. By integrating a weather generator, an HBV-based hydrological model and an HPG simulation model, both the reservoir inflows and subsequent HPG amounts during the baseline period (1980-1999) and the future period (2020-2039) were simulated and compared. The downscaled rainfalls and temperatures under the A1B and B1 emissions scenarios from seven general circulation models (GCMs) were used to generate the reservoir inflows. The simulated seasonal inflows, averaged by the multi-model ensemble approach for the seven GCMs, tend to decrease in the future. Under the A1B scenario, the percentage change in HPG for the seven GCMs ranges between -14.9% and 4.6% during the May-October wet season and between -33.1% and 0.2% during the November-April dry season. Under the B1 scenario, the corresponding values are -19.6% to 4.1% and -30.6% to -6.4% during the wet and dry seasons, respectively.

貢獻的翻譯標題Climate change impacts on reservoir inflows and subsequent hydroelectric power generation for cascaded hydropower plants
原文French
頁(從 - 到)1196-1212
頁數17
期刊Hydrological Sciences Journal
59
發行號6
DOIs
出版狀態Published - 2014 6月

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • 水科學與技術

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