Impacts of land use and climate changes scenarios on streamflow

Tzu Ping Lin, Wan Yu Lien, Yu Pin Lin, Li Chi Chiang

研究成果: Article同行評審

1 引文 斯高帕斯(Scopus)

摘要

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the impacts of climate and land use changes on a small watershed in Taiwan. The AR5 General Circulation Models(GCMs) output data was adopted in this study and was used weather generaor to generate the daily weather data as the input data of hydrological model such as Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model in this study. The spatially explicit land uses change model, the Conservation of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent (CLUE-s), was applied to simulate land use scenarios in 2020-2039. Combined climate and land use change scenarios were adopted as input data of the hydrological model, the SWAT model, to estimate the future streamflows. In feture, CLUE-s model showed the increasing forest(+0.7%) and urban(+4.0%) area, and decreasing agricultural(-3.6%) and others land(-1.1%); GCMs model showed the decreasing annual precipitation, increasing rainfall in wet season(+1.44%) and decreasing rainfall in dry season(-3.41%). Besides, the three scenarios including land use change, climate change and both of land use change and climate change are considered in this study. The results showed land use didn't influence streamflow very much in the land use change scenario, rainfall is the main factor for streamflow. However, the land use change does affect the stramflow. Thus, we suggest that all the factors which may influence the streamflow should be considered to fully estimate the future changes of streamflow. The results also showed the annual streamflow was decreased, the high streamflow months change from September-November to August-October and the low flow months change from July to March and April. These results incidated a more stringent challenge on the water resource management and allocation in future. Therefore, impacts on water resource caused by climate change and land use change should be considered in water resource planning for the Datuan river watershed.

原文English
頁(從 - 到)52-65
頁數14
期刊Taiwan Water Conservancy
64
發行號3
出版狀態Published - 2016

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • 環境工程
  • 水科學與技術

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