Modeling financial interval time series

Liang Ching Lin, Li Hsien Sun

研究成果: Article同行評審

摘要

In financial economics, a large number of models are developed based on the daily closing price. When using only the daily closing price to model the time series, we may discard valuable intra-daily information, such as maximum and minimum prices. In this study, we propose an interval time series model, including the daily maximum, minimum, and closing prices, and then apply the proposed model to forecast the entire interval. The likelihood function and the corresponding maximum likelihood estimates (MLEs) are obtained by stochastic differential equation and the Girsanov theorem. To capture the heteroscedasticity of volatility, we consider a stochastic volatility model. The efficiency of the proposed estimators is illustrated by a simulation study. Finally, based on real data for S&P 500 index, the proposed method outperforms several alternatives in terms of the accurate forecast.

原文English
文章編號e0211709
期刊PloS one
14
發行號2
DOIs
出版狀態Published - 2019 二月

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • 生物化學、遺傳與分子生物學 (全部)
  • 農業與生物科學 (全部)
  • 多學科

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