Predicting financial activity with evolutionary fuzzy case-based reasoning

Sheng Tun Li, Hei Fong Ho

研究成果: Article同行評審

64 引文 斯高帕斯(Scopus)

摘要

Predicting financial activity through examining the short-term liquidity is crucial within today's turbulent financial environment. Firms, governments, and individuals all need an effective methodology based on liquidity information that plays performance deterioration warning a priori bankruptcy prediction. In this paper, we propose a hybrid decision model using case-based reasoning augmented with genetic algorithms (GAs) and the fuzzy k nearest neighbor (fuzzy k-NN) methods for predicting the financial activity rate. GAs are used to determine the optimal or near-optimal weight vector of financial features expressed in linguistic values by the expert. A fuzzy k-NN-based CBR scheme is designed to compute memberships of financial activity rates and to provide a more flexible and practical mechanism for acquiring, creating, and reusing the expert's decision knowledge. An empirical experimentation using 746 publicly traded Taiwanese firms shows that the average accuracy of the rating is about 92.36%, which is superior to other related models. The proposed approach not only can lend support to the decision of an expert, but also allow proper feedback for the expert to improve the quality of the decision.

原文English
頁(從 - 到)411-422
頁數12
期刊Expert Systems With Applications
36
發行號1
DOIs
出版狀態Published - 2009 一月 1

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Engineering(all)
  • Computer Science Applications
  • Artificial Intelligence

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