Probabilistic analysis for contaminant transport in porous media with reliability analysis algorithm

A reliability algorithm is used to study the probabilistic behavior of contaminant transport in porous media. Only second moments of uncertain variables are needed; the marginal distribution functions may be specified if available. The approach provides a probability estimate for a specified performance criterion and sensitivity measures for each uncertain variable. Probabilistic analytical results indicate dispersivity can often be defined as a deterministic variable with little influence on the probabilistic outcome; reaction terms must be statistically characterized with care. A numerical probabilistic example indicates spatial correlation ranges for discretized permeabilities may have little influence on the probability. (Authors)