Probabilistic drought forecasting in Southern Taiwan using El Niño-Southern Oscillation index

Shien Tsung Chen, Tao Chang Yang, Chen Min Kuo, Chih Hao Kuo, Pao Shan Yu

研究成果: Article同行評審

16 引文 斯高帕斯(Scopus)

摘要

This study proposes a probabilistic drought forecasting model to forecast meteorological drought in Southern Taiwan using the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index. Meteorological drought is defined by the standardized precipitation index (SPI), and the ENSO index is El Niño sea surface temperature (SST). Two probabilistic forecasting model architectures were constructed based on the transition probabilities from El Niño SSTs to SPIs. Both model architectures forecast a one-month-ahead probability distribution for meteorological drought using different combinations of El Niño SST variables. Forecasting results showed the robustness of the probabilistic drought forecasting models. In addition, this study discussed the selection of El Niño SST variables used in the probabilistic drought forecasting model, and found that models with a single SST input outperformed those with multiple SST inputs.

原文English
頁(從 - 到)911-924
頁數14
期刊Terrestrial, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences
24
發行號5
DOIs
出版狀態Published - 2013 10月

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • 海洋學
  • 大氣科學
  • 地球與行星科學(雜項)

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