Risk scores to predict HCC and the benefits of antiviral therapy for CHB patients in gray zone of treatment guidelines

Wei Teng, Ting Tsung Chang, Hwai I. Yang, Cheng Yuan Peng, Chien Wei Su, Tung Hung Su, Tsung Hui Hu, Ming Lung Yu, Hung Chih Yang, Jaw Ching Wu

研究成果: Article同行評審

16 引文 斯高帕斯(Scopus)


Backgrounds: ALT ≥ 80 U/L and HBV DNA ≥ 2000 IU/ml are treatment criteria of APASL guidelines for chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients. The need of antiviral therapy for patients in gray zone (ALT < 80 U/L or HBV DNA < 2000 IU/ml) is controversial. This study aimed to develop a scoring system to predict hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and evaluate the benefit of antiviral therapy in these patients. Methods: Seven hundred and forty-nine patients were analyzed. Significant variables were weighted to develop a scoring system for HCC prediction. The area under receiver operating curves (AUROC) were estimated and validated by REVEAL-HBV cohort (n = 3527). Results: Older age (p < 0.001), male sex (p = 0.036), family history of HCC (p = 0.002) and HBV DNA ≥ 2000 IU/ml (p = 0.045) were independently associated with HCC. A 14-point risk score system predicts 3 and 5-years HCC risk to be 0.866 and 0.868 of AUROC, respectively in the derivation cohort; 0.821 and 0.820, in the REVEAL-HBV cohort. The cumulative HCC incidence was higher in the high risk (score ≥ 8) group both in derivation and validation cohorts (p < 0.001). Patients with antiviral therapy had lower HCC incidence compared to those without (p = 0.016). Of note, antiviral therapy significantly decreased HCC in the high risk group (p = 0.005), but not in the low risk group (p = 0.705). Conclusions: A risk scoring system is established and validated. Of CHB patients in gray zone of APASL guidelines, those with risk scores ≥ 8 had higher risk of HCC, but the risk could be significantly reduced by antiviral therapy.

頁(從 - 到)1421-1430
期刊Hepatology International
出版狀態Published - 2021 12月

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • 肝病


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