Strengthening water supply system adaptive capacity to climate change in central region

This study aims to evaluate the spatial vulnerability distribution of water resources and propose the adaptive strategies for central Taiwan. The main tasks of this study are future water demand estimation, rainfall trend analysis, climate change impact analysis, and adaptive strategy proposing. Future water demand estimation considers the impact of GDP and temperature on domestic use water demand. MWP Test and KW Test are used to analyze the variation trend of precipitation, intensity, and drought day. The water supply systems are built based on the system dynamics model, VENSIM, to evaluate the impact on water resources under climate change. Based on the impact analysis result, multi-criteria analysis is used to optimize optimal adaptive strategies combination. The combination is for the shortage, estimated from a scenario of climate change in 2030s, and we suggest that a regular check and evaluation of these plans is necessary.