The determination of optimal software release times at different confidence levels with consideration of learning effects

As most software reliability models do not clearly explain the variance in the mean value function of cumulative software errors, they might not be effective in deducing the confidence interval regarding the mean value function. In such cases, software developers cannot estimate the possible risk variation in software reliability by using the randomness of the mean value function, thus reducing the decision-making reliability when determining an optimal software release time. In this paper, the method of stochastic differential equations is used to build a software reliability model, which is validated based on practical data previously used in six published papers. Moreover, the estimation of the parameters of the proposed model, which can be defined as the autonomous error-detected factor and the learning factor, is also illustrated, and the results of model validation empirically confirm that the proposed model is able to account for a fairly large portion of the variance of the mean value function. Additionally, the confidence intervals of the mean value function regarding software faults are employed to assist software developers in determining the optimal release times at different confidence levels. Finally, a numerical example is given to verify the effectiveness of the proposed model.