Polynomial Modeling of Generic Wind Power Plants with HHT and Autoregression for Wind Power Forecasting

摘要

The variable nature of wind energy has resulted in several difficulties for grid operators One challenging problem is the prediction of the output power of wind farms A polynomial approach of predicting the power output of generic wind power plants is presented This research establishes a constructive approach for finding the mathematical model that captures the input-output properties of generic wind power plants We first select related information as the candidate input data using statistical methods The input-output relationship of wind power plants are modeled as a polynomial system with time-delay The coefficients of the polynomial system are identified using various system identification methods Data obtained from simulation software and real wind power plants are used in this research These data include wind related data and information available from generic wind power plants The related input data are decomposed into several intrinsic mode functions using Hilbert-Huang-Transform The intrinsic mode functions are cross correlated with the output power to identify the significant components as well as the possible delay time The relationship between the related intrinsic mode functions and the output power is modeled as a polynomial system with time-delay to model the nonlinear properties of wind power plants Several simulation results are provided to show the effectiveness of the proposed approach

獎項日期	2014 8月 20
原文	English
監督員	Ta-Chung Wang (Supervisor)