The Effect of ECFA and Euro Debt Crisis on the Export and Import Values of Taiwan

摘要

This study applies multiple regression models to examine the effects of ECFA (Cross-Straits Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement) which became effective on Jan 1 2011 on the export and import values of Taiwan from 2008 to 2013 This study collects monthly data during the period for regression analysis In order to cover the effects on different aspects of Taiwan export and import values this study takes monthly overall export and import values of Taiwan and monthly export and import values between Taiwan and China as dependent variables Euro debt crisis was another mega event that affected international trade during the period and therefore will be considered and analyzed in this study In order to test the crowding-out effect on other top 3 trading partners except China this study also takes monthly export and import values between Taiwan and other top 3 trading partners as dependent variables for analysis ECFA and euro debt crisis as the mega events are set as dummy variables The macroeconomic control variables include real effective exchange rate index and leading indicators while seasonal factors like Chinese New Year and cargo rush for holiday seasons are set as dummy variables The empirical results show that ECFA has positive effects on the values of export from Taiwan and negative effects on values of overall import and import from top 3 partners except China which indicates the problem of crowding-out effect Regarding euro debt crisis the empirical results show that it has negative effects on the export values of Taiwan but it does not have significant effects on values of import from some countries

獎項日期	2015 6月 8
原文	English
監督員	Hsin-Hong Kang (Supervisor)